Wednesday, August 13, 2008

UPDATE 1-Thai consumer confidence recovers in July

BANGKOK, Aug 14 (Reuters) - Thai consumer confidence rose in July after falling for three straight months, boosted by the government's economic stimulus measures, cheaper subsidised petrol and robust exports, a survey showed on Thursday.

The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) said its survey showed these positive factors outweighed political uncertainty caused by protests against Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej and concern over the global credit market crisis.

The recovery in July surprised some analysts, who had expected consumption to remain sluggish due to high inflation.

"It may be premature to say that consumer confidence has returned, but the possibility of oil prices hovering in a lower $100-120 range in the second half and the boost from state stimulus measures should improve sentiment in the months ahead," UTCC poll director Thanavath Phonvichai told reporters.

"One negative factor for the economy is lingering political uncertainty," he said, referring to what might happen now former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra has decided to leave the country without fighting corruption charges against him in court.

The street protests have been aimed partly at Thaksin, seen as the power behind the Samak government.

In a bid to shore up its popularity among urban voters, the government introduced stimulus measures in July for six months, including a cut in consumption tax for petrol, free bus and train rides, and reduced power and water charges.

Adding to the beneficial effects of these measures, world oil prices have fallen sharply in recent weeks.

Finance Minister Surapong Suebwonglee, who has tried to revive consumer confidence as soaring inflation curbed Thais' purchasing power, voiced disapproval of the Bank of Thailand's decision to raise interest rates in July to tackle inflation.

That has led to a rift between the government and central bank over how to tackle inflation, which hit a 10-year high of 9.2 percent in July.

LATIN AMERICAN MARKETS: Commodity Stocks Lift Brazil; Mexico Ticks Lower

By Carla Mozee

Brazilian equities were pulled higher by commodity-related stocks Wednesday, while Mexican stocks edged lower with word from its largest trading partner that retail spending sputtered last month.

Brazil's Bovespa rose 1.5% to 55,326.35. The index is on track to break a four-session losing streak.

Among the strongest price performers of the session were mining giant Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (RIO) and state-run oil firm Petroleo Brasileiro ( PBR).

Vale was up 4.7%, its biggest jump in nearly two weeks. Petrobras shares gained 4.5%. Together, shares of Petrobras and Vale comprise about 24% of Bovespa.

Investment firm Bradespar, one of the controlling shareholders of Vale and the equity arm of Banco Bradesco (BBD), surged 4.5%. Bradespar's shares have declined about 14% since July 31.

The recent pullback in resource prices have weighed on the Brazilian market heavyweights. Vale shares had lost 5.9% over the previous three sessions, and Petrobras shares had lost 3.4% during the same period.

Also, shares of fuel distributor Ultrapar (UGP) picked up 2.6% and steelmaker Companhia Siderurgica Nacional (SID) rose 3.8%.

Resource stocks found their footing Wednesday as crude-oil rose for the first day in four, up around $115 a barrel after the U.S. government reported that supplies for crude, gasoline and distillates fell last week.

Meanwhile, prices for silver rose to above $14.51 an ounce, and copper futures climbed 1.6% to $3.28 a pound. Gold futures jumped nearly 2.1% to $831.50 an ounce in the wake of an 8-day losing streak.

The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index, (CRB), a benchmark gauging the prices of major commodities, climbed 2%.